Continuous April data bad investment bank cuts China's economic growth forecast

In the early morning of May 15th, Beijing time, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on Tuesday that after four months of disappointing data, economists have updated their views on China's prospects. Many economists And market players have begun to adjust downwards to the forecast of China's economic growth in 2013.

At the beginning of 2013, economists at major investment banks have great hopes that China's rebound in the last quarter of 2012 will gain more momentum. A survey of 18 economists in late 2012 showed that their median forecast for the growth of the Chinese economy in 2013 was 8%, slightly higher than the actual growth in 2012 of 7.8%.

The latest group of surveys this week showed that the median forecast of 12 economists for China's new year's economic growth has dropped to 7.8%.

Zhu Haibin of JPMorgan Chase is also the latest economist to adjust to the forecast of China's GDP growth. After the Chinese government released data on April industrial output that disappointed the market on Monday, Zhu Haibin lowered his 2013 China economic growth forecast from 7.8% to 7.6%. He pointed out that the weak demand shown by the data and the momentum of the slowdown in the manufacturing sector to the service industry are the main reasons for this adjustment.

JPMorgan’s forecast for the new year’s growth in the Chinese economy in late 2012 is still 8%. Zhu Haibin pointed out in his research report on Tuesday that "the April data shows that domestic demand is still on the weak side, and to a certain extent, it has also led to the downturn in the service sector." The report said, "although the growth of real estate market investment and railway construction investment is still strong. However, investment in manufacturing continues to decline, and the recovery in industrial production is weaker than expected."

The April data included a 9.3% year-on-year increase in industrial output, although better than the March value of 8.9%, but still below market expectations; retail sales underperformed; although new loans in the first quarter increased significantly, The growth in fixed asset investment has not shown signs of accelerating. Although exports have a year-on-year growth of 14.7%, it seems to maintain a positive momentum, but economists generally believe that most of them are due to exporters trying to use the tax rebate to open the export invoice.

Economists generally believe that there are still stagnant factory output, anti-corruption public consumption and luxury goods market shrinking, the control of the unofficial banking system known as shadow banking and other factors are limiting economic growth, China seems Willing to tolerate lower growth rates in the painful economic restructuring process.

Standard Chartered Bank last week cut its forecast for China's economic growth from 8.3% to 7.7%.

ING is the biggest drop in this wave of downgrades, reducing the forecast from 9% to 7.8%. Tim Condon, chief economist at ING, said: "Our previous 9% expectation is based on a global economic recovery that will translate into stronger domestic demand. This did not happen in the first quarter."

There are still economists who insist on the same expectations. Daiwa Securities maintained its 8.1% expectation, saying that the survey of China's factory activity in the month showed signs of expansion. The recovery of car sales and the one-quarter monetary policy also released positive signals.

Capital Economics also maintained its 8% forecast, said Mark Williams, a macro Chinese economist at Kaitou. “With the degree of credit expansion last year, we predict that we will return to health or even accelerate growth in the next few quarters. ”

Although HSBC has also lowered its own forecast, the 8.2% result is still in a more optimistic direction. Qu Hongbin, a Chinese economist at HSBC, pointed out in the report that China still needs relatively rapid growth. “The target of 7.5% is more like a minimum control target than a happy result.” HSBC Bank’s 2013 China The GDP forecast is 8.6%.

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