In the first quarter of 2015, the domestic pulp price increased significantly. With the implementation of a series of national macroeconomic adjustment policies, China's waste paper and paperboard imports and exports have basically embarked on a track of steady development. In the second quarter, due to the low season in the Pearl River, the domestic paper industry was in a downturn. The sales of various manufacturers were not optimistic, but the overall improvement was good. However, in the long run, the development of the paper industry is still stable. It is expected that the paper market will stabilize in the second half of the year. The trend of rising.
Market analysis
1. Monthly analysis of the market in 2014
In the first half of 2014, the price trend of whiteboard paper changed: from January to June, it was stable in the upward trend, and it was mainly from April to June.
Upstream period
January: The paper and paperboard market increased slightly. Due to the approaching of the end of the year and the promotion of festivals such as the Spring Festival, some paper mills shouted prices, but the actual situation remains to be seen. The overall price of gray-based whiteboard paper fluctuated upward. In March-February, due to domestic environmental protection problems and international pulp price increase, the upstream price was firm, and the domestic pulp price rose successively, and the gains were good.
Secondary stationary period:
2-3 months: After the Spring Festival, the paper mills started to work one after another. Due to the excessive sales pressure, various manufacturers mainly wait and see, and many manufacturers continued the price before the Spring Festival for a long time. The overall domestic stocks were sufficient, and the sales volume changed little. Due to the economic slowdown and unclear market conditions, paper manufacturers kept in and out of shipments.
Stable operation
April-May: Domestic papers are slowing down, domestic buyers are more resistant to price hikes, and paper mills are affected by factors such as raw material price increases, poor sales, and environmental protection. Paper mills face a crisis of survival, domestic paper mills survive the fittest, large manufacturers gradually occupy market share. Beginning in late May, the paper industry's off-season characteristics are gradually obvious, paper sales are not optimistic, paper mills have high inventory pressure, high production costs, and goods are returned. Slow, most paper mills are struggling to keep running. Some small and medium-sized private paper enterprises are difficult to sustain due to difficulties in financing and high financing costs. In June, the domestic paper market gradually entered the traditional off-season, and sales in various regions were slow, and the actual transactions were general.
2. Downstream industry
According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, as of the end of October 2014, relevant data analysis of paper products manufacturers above designated size, in the statistics of 4,300 paper products manufacturers above designated size, there are 40 state-owned and state-owned enterprises, accounting for 0.90%; There are 750 enterprises with three capitals, accounting for 17.44%; there are 3,510 collective and other enterprises, accounting for 81.62%. Among the total revenues of the main business of paper products enterprises, state-owned and state-owned holding enterprises accounted for 0.63%; “three-capital†enterprises accounted for 26.73%; collective and other enterprises accounted for 72.64%. Among the total profits and taxes, state-owned and state-owned holding companies accounted for 0.72%; “three-capital†enterprises accounted for 29.39%; collective and others accounted for 69.89%. Among the total profits, state-owned and state-controlled enterprises accounted for 0.68%; “three-capital†enterprises accounted for 33.74%; collective and other enterprises accounted for 65.58%.
3. Production and economic market in January-March 2015
From January to March 2015, the cumulative production of mechanical paper and paperboard was 26.906 million tons, a cumulative decrease of 2.3%. From January to March 2015, the cumulative export delivery value of the national paper industry was 6.85 billion yuan, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 6.0%, and the industry's production and sales rate was 96.5%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points over the same period in 2014. From January to March 2015, the national paper industry's accumulated main business income was 180.76 billion yuan, a cumulative increase of 2.3%; total accumulated profit was 6.60 billion yuan, a cumulative increase of 2.2%; cumulative tax totaled 4.42 billion yuan, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 0.9% .
Late prediction
In the first quarter of 2015, domestic pulp prices increased significantly. With the implementation of a series of national macroeconomic adjustment policies, China's waste paper and paperboard imports and exports have basically embarked on a smooth development track, affected by the international pulp price increase, local paper The market atmosphere is strong. In the second quarter, due to the low season in the Pearl River, the domestic paper industry was in a downturn. The sales of various manufacturers were not optimistic, but the overall improvement was good. However, in the long run, the development of the paper industry is still stable. It is expected that the paper market will stabilize in the second half of the year. The trend of rising.
Market analysis
1. Monthly analysis of the market in 2014
In the first half of 2014, the price trend of whiteboard paper changed: from January to June, it was stable in the upward trend, and it was mainly from April to June.
Upstream period
January: The paper and paperboard market increased slightly. Due to the approaching of the end of the year and the promotion of festivals such as the Spring Festival, some paper mills shouted prices, but the actual situation remains to be seen. The overall price of gray-based whiteboard paper fluctuated upward. In March-February, due to domestic environmental protection problems and international pulp price increase, the upstream price was firm, and the domestic pulp price rose successively, and the gains were good.
Secondary stationary period:
2-3 months: After the Spring Festival, the paper mills started to work one after another. Due to the excessive sales pressure, various manufacturers mainly wait and see, and many manufacturers continued the price before the Spring Festival for a long time. The overall domestic stocks were sufficient, and the sales volume changed little. Due to the economic slowdown and unclear market conditions, paper manufacturers kept in and out of shipments.
Stable operation
April-May: Domestic papers are slowing down, domestic buyers are more resistant to price hikes, and paper mills are affected by factors such as raw material price increases, poor sales, and environmental protection. Paper mills face a crisis of survival, domestic paper mills survive the fittest, large manufacturers gradually occupy market share. Beginning in late May, the paper industry's off-season characteristics are gradually obvious, paper sales are not optimistic, paper mills have high inventory pressure, high production costs, and goods are returned. Slow, most paper mills are struggling to keep running. Some small and medium-sized private paper enterprises are difficult to sustain due to difficulties in financing and high financing costs. In June, the domestic paper market gradually entered the traditional off-season, and sales in various regions were slow, and the actual transactions were general.
2. Downstream industry
According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, as of the end of October 2014, relevant data analysis of paper products manufacturers above designated size, in the statistics of 4,300 paper products manufacturers above designated size, there are 40 state-owned and state-owned enterprises, accounting for 0.90%; There are 750 enterprises with three capitals, accounting for 17.44%; there are 3,510 collective and other enterprises, accounting for 81.62%. Among the total revenues of the main business of paper products enterprises, state-owned and state-owned holding enterprises accounted for 0.63%; “three-capital†enterprises accounted for 26.73%; collective and other enterprises accounted for 72.64%. Among the total profits and taxes, state-owned and state-owned holding companies accounted for 0.72%; “three-capital†enterprises accounted for 29.39%; collective and others accounted for 69.89%. Among the total profits, state-owned and state-controlled enterprises accounted for 0.68%; “three-capital†enterprises accounted for 33.74%; collective and other enterprises accounted for 65.58%.
3. Production and economic market in January-March 2015
From January to March 2015, the cumulative production of mechanical paper and paperboard was 26.906 million tons, a cumulative decrease of 2.3%. From January to March 2015, the cumulative export delivery value of the national paper industry was 6.85 billion yuan, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 6.0%, and the industry's production and sales rate was 96.5%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points over the same period in 2014. From January to March 2015, the national paper industry's accumulated main business income was 180.76 billion yuan, a cumulative increase of 2.3%; total accumulated profit was 6.60 billion yuan, a cumulative increase of 2.2%; cumulative tax totaled 4.42 billion yuan, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 0.9% .
Late prediction
In the first quarter of 2015, domestic pulp prices increased significantly. With the implementation of a series of national macroeconomic adjustment policies, China's waste paper and paperboard imports and exports have basically embarked on a smooth development track, affected by the international pulp price increase, local paper The market atmosphere is strong. In the second quarter, due to the low season in the Pearl River, the domestic paper industry was in a downturn. The sales of various manufacturers were not optimistic, but the overall improvement was good. However, in the long run, the development of the paper industry is still stable. It is expected that the paper market will stabilize in the second half of the year. The trend of rising.
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